Illicit and Innovative Intelligence (I3)

Illicit and Innovative Intelligence (I3) studies innovation dynamics in illicit, informal, and rapidly adapting environments. The program tracks how unconventional actors develop tactics, supply chains, and technical workarounds under pressure, and how those adaptations diffuse across networks. I3 produces analytic frameworks and monitoring focused on the practical question: how do non-traditional innovators move faster than formal systems, and what early signals show the next shift.

Status: Collections

Building an initial monitoring and indicator set focused on how illicit innovation emerges, scales, and transfers across networks.

Pillar One: Innovation Under Constraint

I3 analyzes how constraint drives creativity: access limits, sanctions, enforcement pressure, and resource scarcity. The focus is on patterns that repeat across domains, including modular design, substitution, rapid iteration, and operational learning loops.

Pillar Two: Diffusion and Network Transfer

The program tracks how techniques spread: who copies whom, what routes knowledge travels through, and what enables scaling. This pillar emphasizes network structure, intermediaries, and the role of services, marketplaces, and diaspora channels in moving know-how.

Pillar Three: Early Signals and Monitoring

I3 builds monitoring around leading indicators, including procurement anomalies, forum activity, shipping patterns, component substitution, and tactical signature changes. The goal is actionable warning, not retrospective explanation.